Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Confessions of a Pollster: Fear

Another night on the phones, and a depressing one. There is nothing to get you down more than a night of "Keys... Keys again... erm, well, I hope Keys..." after every question.


When I first heard Thom Yorke's The Eraser in 2006, I began to feel the negative energy that must have been brewing in the UK after the beginning of the Iraq War and as Blair's career begin to spiral downwards in a maelstrom of secrets and conspiracies. Especially on the track Harrowdown Hill, which questions the 'suicide' of UN Weapons Inspector Dr. David Kelly, I began to understand the darkness of an untruthful conservative world and the dangers of a suppressed public, unable to control the actions of their government.

I am starting to feel this in New Zealand for the first time. The energy coming from the right is vitriolic, threatening, and - especially when considering environmental issues - harmful beyond repair. It is the energy of fear, the same aura which turn the public towards the Conservative vote to begin with. I'm beginning to feel it every time I hang up the phone. Those who have experienced a National government before (I was too young in the nineties) will probably tell me that this is to be expected.

In the polls, I hear people say 'National', but not as certainly as the media would have you think, and more importantly, you can sense the persons fear. They are hanging onto their vote with a thread of hope. They are not receiving the change they believed they were voting for. I have warmth towards the New Zealand public for displaying patience and hope, but despair at the dead end we ultimately face. I am beginning to understand that the New Zealand centre is not one ultimately leaning to the right, it is the establishment that is grounded to the right, and the vote is easily led that way by fear. I have known this for some time in theory, but this is my first real life experience of it.

The sad thing is, there is more of this to come. Back to the phones tonight.



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